Why the quoted lead time is rarely the real one
The lead time a supplier quotes is usually their best case: the time to make or pick your order once everything goes right. What you need is the time from the day you place an order to the day you can sell the stock. That includes the wait for their production slot, packing, shipping, customs if you import, and your own time to check the delivery in.
Ask questions that get a real answer
"What's your lead time?" gets a sales answer. These get an operational one:
- "If I place an order on Monday, when will it ship, and when should it reach me?"
- "Is that time for items you hold in stock, or for items you make to order?"
- "How much longer does it take in your busy season, and when is that?"
- "Do you close for any holidays or factory shutdowns this year?"
- "What happens if one item on my order is out of stock? Do you hold the whole order or ship the rest?"
A short email you can send
Hi [name], I'm planning our orders for the next few months and want to get our timing right. If I place an order on a Monday, roughly when would it ship, and when should it arrive with us? Does that change for made-to-order items or in your busy season? And are there any closures coming up we should plan around? Thanks so much.
Check it against your own history
Your past orders are the best evidence you have. For each supplier, look at your last few orders and count the days from ordering to receiving. If deliveries usually take longer than the quoted time, plan with the longer number. A late delivery costs you lost sales; a few spare days cost you very little.
Keep one number per supplier, and revisit it
- Use the time you actually experience, not the quote.
- If one product takes much longer than the rest, give it its own lead time.
- Recheck before your busy season and after any delivery that ran late.
Why it matters so much
Lead time drives your reorder point. Underestimate it by a week, and you'll run out a week before the delivery lands, every time. Our reorder point guide shows the math.
How Posto helps
Set a lead time for each supplier, and override it for any product that's slower. Once 3 orders from a supplier have arrived, Posto does the history check for you: it switches to the average of how long those deliveries actually took and labels it "measured," so the quote stops steering your orders. It also fills in the expected arrival date when you send an order and shows orders that are running late.